by [email protected]
No matter how you look at it, 2018 was a bad year for predicting Rugby results at AP. Coming off a great 2017 season, confidence was high however our predictions for the year got off to a bad start, which was not recovered from, despite a better performance in the last two-thirds of the season.
Consequently, we needed to understand ‘why’ this happened and use some sophisticated science to answer this question confidently, before the start of the 2019 season. Part of the AP’s greatest strength and weakness is data – we use large amounts of it to build a customised model for every team in the competition, which is updated every week. However, when we think we have discovered something to improve in one of these models, we then have to wait several weeks to collect enough data, to test if it makes a practical and positive difference to the tips we provide our punters.
To test if we could improve on the 2018 season, we needed a way to test our models – and their potential improvements – quickly and using a lot of data. So we created our own ‘back-testing script’, which allows us to make a change to a model and then apply it to every game in the 2018 season. This took some serious effort, for example, check out this bit of code:
These 8 lines create over 4000 models, which in this case, are used to predict specific in-match statistics for each team, like how many times they might pass or kick the ball.
By using this script, we were able to systematically test various questions to improve each model like:
Cycling through these questions allowed us to dramatically improve every team’s model. Also, one of the 200 factors we consider for every team, are the betting market odds of that team winning. This allows us to compare the chance our model gives to a team winning, with that of the betting market. As a result, we can pinpoint both favorites and underdogs who are the best value for our subscribers.
Whilst we can’t say we are grateful quite yet for learnings that have come from the 2018 Rugby season, we have definitely invested heavily in how we predict these types of sporting outcomes – and when they are applied to Rugby League (18.8% ROI) and Horse Racing (we correctly picked the winner of the Melbourne Cup), well then AP subscribers are set for a bumper year!
The below example is based on someone starting with a betting bank of $1000, betting at level stakes of 5% or $50 each bet. We are excited by the returns after our first year in operation. With the addition of the staking plan this year allowing us to vary our recommended stake from match to match, we are aiming for even stronger returns during 2018.
Units bet each match: $50
Total Outlay: $2650
Total Profit/Loss: $298.50
Profit on Turnover: 11.21%
Total Outlay: $900
Total Profit/Loss: $569.50
Profit on Turnover: 63.28%
Total Outlay: $3550
Total Profit/Loss: $868
Profit on Investment: 86.80%
Profit on Turnover: 24.45%
You must agree, these are some pretty impressive returns for the year. Unless you’ve struck it lucky in the crypto market, consistent and predictable returns like these are hard to come by, and are often a closely guarded secret!
An exciting advancement for Advantage Punter this year is the addition of the staking plan. Each recommended bet will be displayed to subscribers along with a recommended stake between 1 and 10.
For current subscribers, those who are considering a subscription, or anyone looking to improve on their punting returns we would advise establishing a betting bank for the season. From there we would recommend holding accounts with a number of bookmakers to ensure you are able to secure the best price for each match (best to shop at the top)! In essence, the recommend units equate to a percentage outlay of the betting bank, meaning recommended stakes range from 1% - 10%.
Simply follow the weekly staking plan to determine your outlays and for those that use their own staking plan, put this information to use when making your wagering decisions.
We will update our profit and loss return weekly throughout the season based on the staking plan.
Thanks to those that have signed up for the season already and for anyone else please feel free to send through any questions you may have.
Super Rugby 2018 tips